In the last decade, North Carolina experienced a significant demographic shift, with urban counties gaining population while rural counties experienced losses. This trend was reflected in the political landscape, with the counties won by Joe Biden gaining more people than those won by Donald Trump.
However, new Census data released this month has revealed a change in this narrative. While urban counties continue to grow, the rate of growth in Republican-leaning counties has surpassed that of Democratic-leaning counties. In some rural areas, previously won by Trump, population gain has been significant, indicating a potential shift in political affiliations.
For Democrats, the growth in urban areas like Mecklenburg and Wake counties remains a positive sign, despite concerns about crowding and affordability. The trend of newcomers favoring Democratic values is evident in counties like Cabarrus and Henderson, which are traditionally Republican but showing signs of turning purple or even blue.
In contrast, some suburban and exurban counties, like Iredell County, have strengthened their Republican support even as they experience significant growth. The impact of COVID-19 on migration patterns is also evident, with some remote counties gaining population and leaning more conservative.
Overall, the data points to a complex political landscape in North Carolina, where population growth does not necessarily translate into electoral gains for either party. The state’s future political direction will depend on factors such as persuasion, mobilization, and changing demographics in different regions.
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